Artificial Intelligence, the Complexity Trap, and National Security

 

This essay by Carl O. Pabo, Ph.D., introduces a simple modeling system designed to help us think more clearly about the ways in which the rise of AI will change the world. This qualitative, agent-based model identifies several dozen key societal actors—from tech companies and ordinary citizens to political leaders and AI-based agents —and then analyzes how their actions and interactions are likely to reshape the world over the next 5-10 years.

Dr. Pabo’s model is designed to facilitate scenario analysis and policy development, and it points to four major transformations that lie ahead: 1) AI will facilitate remarkable technical advances, yet will 2) relentlessly intensify competitive pressures (as in cyber attack and cyber defense), 3) accelerate a “crisis of complexity” that already threatens governance, and will 4) change the nature of work and prospects for human employment so rapidly that governments may not be able to respond effectively. Unlike the Industrial Revolution, the benefits of AI may be distributed so unevenly as to risk disruption of the social structures on which progress and national security must ultimately depend.

2024 Annual Report

 

Andrew Marshall understood that while change is constant, the enduring contributions of people and their ideas live on. While no institution lasts forever, legacies built on insight and truth can, and do, ripple forward through the generations. It is with this legacy in mind that we reflect on our mission and present our annual assessment of the Andrew W. Marshall Foundation’s past year.

Submarines and Future War: A View from Outside the Force

 

“Technology makes a revolution possible, but the revolution itself takes place only when new concepts of operation develop and new military organizations emerge in order to take full advantage of the opportunities generated by the relevant technologies.”

Remarks of Andrew W. Marshall, Director of OSD Net Assessment, delivered at the National Security Industrial Association’s 13 September 1995 Seminar on “Submarines in the Littoral.”

 

When Efficiency Harms the Mission

 

“In this third essay of my series, “When Efficiency Harms the Mission,” I delve into the hidden costs of prioritizing efficiency above all else. While efficiency often provides tidy, short-term gains, it can undermine the resilience and adaptability needed to respond successfully in when our strengths are rendered less effective.

The essay challenges us to rethink our obsession with centralized control and quantifiable outcomes, proposing a shift toward a decentralized, competitive approach that embraces longstanding American strengths of diversity, tension, and creativity. Drawing from lessons in war, innovation, and policy, I argue that focusing on mission over function is key to true national security.

This series continues to discuss the idea that we are in a moment of transition and our current emerging problems resist our old solutions. It’s critical that we spend some time reflecting on what frameworks we need to foster resilience in an uncertain world rather that jumping straight to solutions.”

The New Gap in America’s R&D Funding Landscape

 

“The scientific community, including funders across sectors of government, philanthropy, and industry, seem to focus on two versions of success: novelty or scale. They bestow awards and grants on those who show either “revolutionary” new ideas or those who purport to solve a problem for millions that can make someone rich. Anything else falls into this category of incremental and it is dismissed. Somehow harvesting the science we have already invested in to solve individual, local, or regional problems that don’t necessarily lend themselves to market rewards is not incentivized. We owe it to American communities to address longstanding and emerging goals and concerns that may not have clear market drivers and may require diverse approaches, such as challenges of clean water and sanitation; drought, flooding, and wildfires; crumbling infrastructure; preventable chronic diseases; opioid addiction—the list is long. The details of these concerns differ across communities, so solutions need to be localized….”

Reopening The Endless Frontier

 

“The policy innovations that emerged from Bush’s recommendations in 1945 have been very successful in many ways. His prescriptions were ideal for a post-WWII era America, and it is important that sustained funding for foundational science continues. Nevertheless, endlessly perpetuating solutions that were correct at the time does not follow Bush’s true legacy, which was to analyze the current national context, specifically focusing on the U.S. science and technology (S&T) system, create a new institutional landscape that filled gaps in that system, and ultimately provide a global model for others. If Bush were alive today, I believe he would expect the country to analyze this moment, not abide by his advice for the problems of his day. An entirely new contextual assessment is required to develop the framework needed for the social, technological, and security concerns of the 21st century. Following his legacy begins with honestly confronting the contemporary context, as difficult as that may be.”

2023 Annual Report

 

At the core of our work lies a fundamental question: How can we empower bold, original thinkers to contribute to the long-term national security of the United States? This question guides our every action. We believe change comes from interdisciplinary thinking, collaboration, and tireless experimentation. 

From the participants in our experiments, in 2023 and previous years, to every individual daring to challenge the status quo, we have nurtured and continue to nurture innovative ideas and support intellectual growth. Through these efforts, the Foundation remains committed to fostering a culture of curiosity, courage, and openness among a diverse array of people dedicated to shaping the future of the United States. 

U.S. Collapse: A Chain-Writing Experiment

March 2024

It is 2053. The United States is no longer a superpower. What happened?

This is the question the Andrew W. Marshall Foundation posed to the public during the summer and fall of 2023. What might occur between 2024 and 2053 for the United States to experience a “rapid, severe, and significant loss” of power? We characterized this shift as a “collapse” – but left the particulars of its definition up to the public. 

The experiment was divided into three phases, each representing a 10-year increment leading to the future state of 2053, when the United States was no longer a superpower. We called for submissions exploring each 10-year increment, starting with 2024–2033. The winning submission of the first phase became the first link in the chain, the starting prompt for the second phase, 2034–2043. This continued to a third phase, thus creating a three-link chain. 

This paper presents the top submission from each period in “The Chain: U.S. Collapse, 2024–2053.” It then presents the runners-up in “Alternative Links in the Chain.” We encourage you to read this paper front to back—and then read it again as a “choose your own adventure.” What other links, and ultimately, chains, are possible? What would you have explored?