Author: Jesse H. Ausubel

Trajectories of COVID-19: A Longitudinal Analysis of Many Nations and Subnational Regions

June 23, 2023

PLOS One

“The COVID-19 pandemic is the first to be rapidly and sequentially measured by nation-wide PCR community testing for the presence of the viral RNA at a global scale. We take advantage of the novel “natural experiment” where diverse nations and major subnational regions implemented various policies including social distancing and vaccination at different times with different levels of stringency and adherence. Initially, case numbers expand exponentially with doubling times of ~1–2 weeks. In the nations where interventions were not implemented or perhaps lees effectual, case numbers increased exponentially but then stabilized around 102-to-103 new infections (per km2 built-up area per day).

Dynamics under effective interventions were perturbed and infections decayed to low levels. They rebounded concomitantly with the lifting of social distancing policies or pharmaceutical efficacy decline, converging on a stable equilibrium setpoint. Here we deploy a mathematical model which captures this V-shape behavior, incorporating a direct measure of intervention efficacy. Importantly, it allows the derivation of a maximal estimate for the basic reproductive number Ro (mean 1.6–1.8). We were able to test this approach by comparing the approximated “herd immunity” to the vaccination coverage observed that corresponded to rapid declines in community infections during 2021. The estimates reported here agree with the observed phenomena. Moreover, the decay (0.4–0.5) and rebound rates (0.2–0.3) were similar throughout the pandemic and among all the nations and regions studied. Finally, a longitudinal analysis comparing multiple national and regional results provides insights on the underlying epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and intervention efficacy, as well as evidence for the existence of an endemic steady state of COVID-19.”

Jewish population trajectories between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea

May 9, 2023

Israel Affairs

“This article re-examines Jewish population in what is now Israel using historical estimates from Ottoman, Mandatory British and United Nations sources and recent data from the Israeli census bureau. A logistic model generates backward extrapolations and forward projections. The model quantifies three waves of Jewish immigration totalling about 3.5 million. Subtracting immigrant data from total population numbers gives the main empirical trajectory for non- immigrant native-born population. A multi-logistic model combining migrant and native populations projects a Jewish population of about 10 million in 2050, a level low in the range of estimates made by others.”

Jesse Ausubel on “Peak Human”

December 7, 2022

“Jesse Ausubel is the director of the Program for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University and the recent winner of the prestigious Nierenberg Prize. In his second appearance on the [Power Hungry] podcast (the first was on October 12, 2021), Ausubel talks about his new work on “peak human” and “peak humans,” why we appear to be reaching the limits of human potential, immunity to disease, “nature deficit disorder,” and why — after a lifetime of being a fan of the New York Yankees — he has quit watching sports.”

Peak Human? Thoughts on the Evolution of Human Performance

November 15, 2022

UC San Diego Scripps Institute of Oceanography

“Environmental scientist Jesse Ausubel, awarded the 2022 Nierenberg Prize for Science in the Public Interest, discusses whether the human species can continue to improve—much like cars, computers, or other technology—or whether our species has reached its peak.

In a career spanning more than four decades, Ausubel has conceived, developed, and led numerous projects to observe and better understand the environment. This includes high-profile work on several major programs to survey and catalog the planet’s biodiversity, including the Census of Marine Life, the International Barcode of Life initiative and the Encyclopedia of Life.

The Nierenberg Prize is presented annually by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and the Nierenberg Family to honor the memory of William A. Nierenberg, an esteemed physicist and national science leader who served Scripps Oceanography as director for two decades. Recorded on 10/13/2022.”

 

Peak Human? Thoughts on the Evolution of the Enhancement of Human Performance

Rockefeller University

Adapted from Jesse Ausubel, lecture upon receiving the 2022 Nierenberg Prize for Science in the Public Interest

October 13, 2022

While societies expect cars and computers to continue to improve, what about humans themselves? Is our species near peak human? We provide a four-part framework for considering performance: cognitive achievement such as IQ, physical achievement such as Olympic records, lifetime performance such as height and life expectancy, and immune system education such as resistance to disease. After several centuries of rapid and pervasive enhancement, trends suggest that human performance enhancements may be hard won during the coming decades.

2021 in Review

December 14, 2021

The Andrew W. Marshall Foundation

 

On Tuesday, December 14, 2021, the Andrew W. Marshall Foundation (AWMF) and advisors met to reflect on 2021 activities and offer thoughts on experimentation, intellectual courage, and mentorship.

Jaymie Durnan, Co-Founder and Chairman of AWMF, welcomed the audience and gave opening remarks. Mr. Durnan discussed how AWMF is fulfilling its mission through the experiments it has launched in 2021and noted that, “we really are keeping our promise to Andy by focusing on people and ideas, and how people are applying these ideas to the future of the United States.”

Jesse Ausubel, director of the Program for the Human Environment at the Rockefeller University, spoke about experimentation and its merits. He stated that, “change is the only truly predictable attribute of most systems” and spoke to the importance of play as a form of experimentation and invention. “The youthful Marshall Foundation understands the need to play, to experiment, and then to grow while retaining that spirit of play. The good news about 2021 is that the Foundation did numerous things for the first time.”

Dr. Melissa Flagg of Flagg Consulting LLC spoke about how we can encourage people to think boldly and imagine possible futures. She described Andrew Marshall as “not in a hurry” and said that she believed “he felt a deep urgency, but it was an urgency to understand – not simply to act.” Dr. Flagg advised that “we have a responsibility to inspire and support those who want to think beyond simply what they have learned.”

Dr. Dan Patt discussed mentorship and what AWMF can do to foster new voices. Mentorship “has nothing to do with having the answers and everything to do with asking the questions,” he stated. He went on to remark, “in the way that Andy lived his life and conducted his career and mentored a good many souls, we can find inspiration and we can find some answers, but probably the greatest lesson for us was in how Andy approached questions, how he approached being a mentor.”

The event concluded with a question-and-answer session with the audience, focusing on identifying good research questions, group creativity, and considerations one should make when looking at future possibilities.

Plant and Animal Diversity Is Declining, But What About Microbial Diversity?

May 11, 2021

RealClear Science

“With alarms sounding about the declining diversity and populations of plants and animals, we post a related concern with equally profound implications: is the variety of microbial life, including viruses, changing too, and if so, in which direction and how fast? As plant and animal numbers shrink, some specialized microbes associated with them might vanish, too. But is there a net overall reduction occurring? If so, is it good or bad news or irrelevant for our species?”