New Publications: Examining History to Explore the Future

April 11, 2023

The Andrew W. Marshall Papers

Examining History to Explore the Future

Antoine Bondaz, Paul Charon, Jacqueline Deal, Pierre Grosser, Eleanor Harvey, Stéphane MalsagneNadège Rolland

Understanding a nation’s history allows us to identify factors and trends that may shape future relations. As Asia becomes the economic center of gravity of the world and China becomes a more powerful actor in the global order, it is important to understand the roles nations will play or wish to play over the next twenty to thirty years so we can shape the future now rather than react later.

The Andrew W. Marshall Foundation’s (AWMF) experiment, Examining History to Explore the Future, tested different ways of using history to think about the future. It supported work on France and the United States, their respective historical relations with China, and how their histories might shape their future relations with China.

This experiment culminated in a French team’s exploration of the history of and actors upon Franco-Chinese relations; a U.S. team’s deep dive into the the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s political warfare against the United States; speculations from both teams around a China dream and a China nightmare; and a capstone paper that provides insights into and comparisons between the two perspectives.

These forays into the plausible – not the guaranteed – are intended to spark debate, new thinking, and, above all, more questions.