The 2021 Andrew W. Marshall Paper Prize on Future Reconfigurations in Asia 2045 awarded multi-round prizes from $500 – $13,000 for well-researched, intellectually bold work exploring the character of Asia over the coming decades. The grand prize-winning paper was presented and published in 2022. Congratulations to our Semi-Finalists, Finalists, and Grand-Prize Winner Treston Wheat!

Prompt & Guidelines

Prompt
Background
Character of Submissions
Questions
Special Thanks

To Our Reviewers

Facilitator: Andrew May

John Battilega

Eric Brown

Donald Chu

Zack Cooper

Gene Dattel

Jacqueline Deal

Ian Easton

Nicholas Eberstadt

Aaron Friedberg

David F. Helvey

Lonnie Henley

Charles Horner

John Lee

Phil Midland

Lucian Pugliaresi

Stephen P. Rosen

Eric Sayers

Frank J. Sensenbrenner

Ashley J. Tellis

Lionel Tiger

Arthur Waldron

All evaluations of submissions were conducted using a double blind review process. Facilitators and reviewers participated in a personal capacity.

Updates

Publications | 04/09/26

New CSET Report Publication by AWM Fellows Sam Bresnick and Cole McFaul

This report by AWM Fellows Sam Bresnick and Cole McFaul along with CSET Emelia Probasco examines thousands of Chinese-language open-source requests for proposal (RFPs) published by the People’s Liberation Army between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2024. The RFPs the authors reviewed offer insights into the PLA’s priorities and ambitions for AI-enabled military technologies associated with C5ISRT: command, control, communications, computers, cyber, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting.
Publications | 10/03/25

New Hudson Institute Publication by AWM Scholar Jake Bebber

This Hudson Institute policy memo by AWM Scholar Jake Bebber proposes a military training program that begins in recruit training and continues as part of regular professional military education based on information inoculation theory, a critical-thinking strategy analogous to medical immunization.
Publications | 06/23/25

Artificial Intelligence, the Complexity Trap, and National Security

This essay by Carl O. Pabo, Ph.D., introduces an agent-based model designed to help us foresee some of the critical changes likely to occur in an age of AI.
News Releases | 06/09/25

Sam Bresnick and Cole McFaul Named as Andrew W. Marshall Fellows

The Andrew W. Marshall Foundation (AWMF) welcomes Sam Bresnick and Cole McFaul as the 2025-2027 Andrew W. Marshall (AWM) Fellows, hosted in residence at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University.