1959
RAND Corporation
“Results of some recent research into the extent and nature of the uncertainty in new developments, with emphasis on problems of development in the Air Force. “Early” estimates of important parameters are usually quite inaccurate because they are “biased” toward overoptimism and because the errors in estimates evidence a substantial variation. The accuracy of estimates is found to be a function of the stage of development, i.e., estimates improve as development of the item progresses.”
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