New Essay by AWMF Advisor Jesse Ausubel
By Jesse H. Ausubel
Andrew W. Marshall (1921 – 2019) developed methods to analyze long-term geopolitical and military competitions at the RAND Corporation (1949-1973) and then as founding director of the U.S. Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment (ONA) from 1973 to 2015. Many now forget that RAND abbreviated Research Applied to National Defense. RAND pioneered systems analysis and game theory, Delphi and other forecasting techniques, and Monte Carlo statistical modeling, and applied these together with historical knowledge and common sense to advance defense economics and largely invent nuclear strategy and deterrence. As the Pentagon’s internal think tank, the ONA has profoundly shaped USA Cold War strategy through unconventional economic and military analyses, red-teaming perceived risks and resilience, and anticipation of ways that information technology would transform militaries. This essay is based on one of a series of interviews conducted by Melissa Flagg and Smiljana Antonijević of the Andrew W. Marshall Foundation to help build a picture of Marshall’s work and influence.