New Experiment: Chain-Writing

May 23, 2023

It is 2053.

The United States is no longer a superpower.

What collapsed or failed? What trends and events led to this? What are the implications for U.S. national interests?

Chain-writing is an asynchronous, crowd-sourced experiment that starts with boundary conditions and allows participants to identify potential events and trends that may lead to a certain future.

The Andrew W. Marshall Foundation’s (AWMF) inaugural chain-writing experiment explores the topic of collapse. For the purpose of this experiment, consider a collapse to be a sociopolitical matter, where a society, country, or organization displays rapid, severe, and significant loss (this should not be confused with a slow decline over an extended period of time). It could be caused by one central or many related factors, including but not limited to:

  • Resource depletion
  • Economic decline
  • Ecological crises
  • War (nuclear or otherwise)
  • Sociopolitical disintegration
  • Organizational dysfunction

In considering these or other factors, AWMF is looking for interesting ideas about collapse and its implications. Participants should describe the realm of the possible and not the probable.