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Papers

Decoding Intentions: Artificial Intelligence and Costly Signals

Andrew Imbrie Helen Toner Owen J. Daniels

October 2023

Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)

How can policymakers credibly reveal and assess intentions in the field of artificial intelligence? Policymakers can send credible signals of their intent by making pledges or committing to undertaking certain actions for which they will pay a price—political, reputational, or monetary—if they back down or fail to make good on their initial promise or threat. Talk is cheap, but inadvertent escalation is costly to all sides.

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