Chain-Writing Phase 2 Submissions Open through July 24

July 11, 2023

It is 2053. The United States is no longer a superpower.

How did it get here? Submit the second link in the chain.

What collapsed or failed? What trends and events led to this? What are the implications for U.S. national interests?

Chain-writing is an asynchronous, crowd-sourced experiment that starts with boundary conditions and allows participants to identify potential events and trends that may lead to a certain future.

Phase 2 submissions must build upon the 2023-2034 link in the chain.


The crisis began when a small, white mouse in Dresden failed to die.

It took some time for anyone to notice: The median lifespan of a lab mouse is about 20 months, but 30 months is not unheard of, and not dying is not a singular event. It was only when a newly hired graduate student at the Max Planck Institute conducted an inventory of the mice retired from previous experiments that she realized something extraordinary had occurred….

Congratulations to Our Phase 1 Finalists

Voting Results

First Place

A Little White Mouse in Dresden

Second Place

Compacts and Crisis

Third Place

No Single Event